Tuesday, 25 June 2013

2013 Finals: One for the Ages.


We won’t be forgetting the 2013 NBA finals for a long time, and as the confetti settles, the rarity of what we just witnessed is still sinking in. From the opening tip the series was ultra competitive and of an incredible standard, culminating in an enthralling Game 7 on Thursday night. The enormity of a season defining 48 minutes can go one of two ways, stifling (Lakers – Celtics ‘10) or raising the standard of play. Thankfully, 26.3 million of us were graced with the latter last week.

It was so close, the whole series seemingly played on a knife edge, being held by a Heat fan 15 beers deep, standing on the shoulders of a Spurs fan 30 beers deep, balancing on one leg, on an indo board, on ice.

What if Timmy Duncan doesn’t miss the easiest shot of his life in game 7? If Tony Parker’s hammy doesn’t flare up? If TD is on the floor for the last 30 seconds of game 6? If Ginobli doesn’t turn the ball over 6 million times? If Lebron’s headband doesn’t fall off? If Ray Allen wasn’t a machine?

Your 2013 NBA Champion – San Antonio Spurs.

So close. Here’s how it almost happened.

Game 1

Lebron’s casual triple double (18pts/18reb/10ast) wasn’t enough for Miami, who got nothing from Wade and Bosh in the 4th quarter thanks to some stereotypically stellar Spurs defence. Tony Parker sums up his whole bi-polar series in one play by being tantalizingly close to losing the ball for the full possession before displaying an instant of genius with the off balance, step through, double pump, bank shot high off the glass, off a pirouette pivot, out of the splits as the shot clock expires with 5.2 seconds left in the game to get the Spurs the road win. Danny Green only takes a half dose of his new shooting potion, warming up with a measly 4 for 9 from behind the arc. Parker’s shot was being touted as the best of finals history (and surely the series…?), Charles Barkley said Miami could be swept (really Chuck?), and everyone agreed Lebron needed help…
 

Game 2

Lebron got help. Wade (10) and Bosh (12) were OK, but it was the role guys that really stepped up, Chalmers (19) led the team in scoring, with Allen (13) and Miller (9) chipping in. None of the Spurs showed up on offense apart from Green, who takes a full dose and lights it up with 5 of 5 from downtown. Oh and Lebron embarrassed Tiago Splitter on national TV with a monster block… (before posing for the cameras mid possession and embarrassing himself… sigh).
 

Game 3

Danny Green (7 of 9) shares the good stuff with Gary Neal (6 of 10) who contribute the lions share of a finals record breaking 16 treys for the Spurs on the way to a gargantuan 36 point blowout. Mike Miller (5 of 5) does his best to resist the onslaught but cannot make up for the consistently mediocre to date Wade (16) and Bosh (12), the absolutely woeful Chalmers (0 points and 1 assist… ouch), and a career playoff low from Lebron (15 on 7 of 21 shooting) – thanks to some awesome defence from one of the few consistent players in the series, the long armed and large handed, Kawhi Leonard. Amidst the long ball euphoria at the AT&T centre, Tony Parker left the game with a sore hamstring which bothered him the rest of the series.

Game 4

It happens very rarely – but the Heat’s big 3, to varying degrees, all played up to their name in the same game!  Bosh was fairly sizeable (20pts/13reb), Lebron was massive (33pts/11reb/4ast), as was Wade (32pts/6reb/4ast/6stl). Not much the Spurs could do about that. Heat win by 7.

Game 5

Desperate for some production from the painfully, well, old, Manu Ginobli - Popovich gives his aging Argentinean the start to boost his confidence. The move works as Manu (24pts/10ast) remembers, for one game at least, how good he once was.  Wade matches Ginobli (25pts/10ast), but Lebron can only manage an inefficient 25 points on 8 of 22 shooting when faced with the confusing reality of not being able to score on unlikely defensive juggernaught - Boris Diaw (….WTF!?!?!). The Spurs shot an awesome 60% from the field; during which, Danny Green went 6-10 from 3 point range, smashing the Finals 3 ball record of 22 makes previously held by Ray Allen (who would have the last, shrill, cold blooded, evil laugh…) by making 25 of 38 on 66% shooting from downtown. This sensational shooting display had Green odds on for Finals MVP heading to Miami for the potential Championship clinching game 6 for San Antonio.

Spurs win by 10.

After the game, Shane Battier, whose shooting touch had been as toxic as Greens had terrific, suspects some shifty behavior on Greens part and sends the otherwise useless Norris Cole to the Spurs locker room to investigate. None of the Spurs players recognize young Norris, who swipes Green’s 3-point potion, delighted to make a contribution to his teams cause.

Game 6

Sensing he is 48 minutes from cementing himself as the greatest player of his generation, Timmy Duncan (30pts/17reb) winds back the clock and hauls his Spurs into pole position going into the 4th period. With 9 minutes to go in the 4th, Lebron loses his headband, and unleashes the fury (of his until now shackled receding hairline) for 18 4th quarter points, getting into the paint at will and bringing his Heat back from the brink of Finals doom and into a game that could go either way heading into the final 2 minutes. Now things really get good…

Tony Parker makes huge back to back buckets - a surprising step back 3 and unsurprising reverse layup. Putting the Spurs up by 2 - 60 seconds away from a legacy making, legacy breaking, fifth Franchise Championship. Lebron turns it over, Ginobli gets fouled and makes both free throws – 4 point game - 37 seconds left. Lebron turns it over again, Ginobli gets fouled again and splits free throws. 5 point game - 28 seconds left – the NBA trophy was in the tunnel ready to be wheeled out and awarded to the Spurs, the arena staff had lined the court with rope ready for the presentation. IT WAS THAT CLOSE. Lebron bricks a 3 pointer, Mike Miller grabs an offensive rebound, Lebron nails his second look at a 3, Leonard gets fouled and splits free throws. Spurs up 3 - 20 seconds left. Lebron bricks another 3, Bosh grabs another offensive rebound (with Duncan inexplicably on the bench… I’m looking at you Pop) and shovels it to Ray Allen in the corner – 5.2 seconds left – Ray somehow steps back behind the 3 point line as he rises up into his shooting motion and lets it fly………….“GET THOSE MOTHERFUCKING ROPES OUT OF HERE!”.

Awesome. Heat win by 1 in overtime (after Allen gets away with fouling Ginobli in the dying seconds…). Lebron (31pts/11reb/10ast) finishes with a triple double, Bosh comes up with 2 big blocks in OT but does little else, Wade (14) is OK, Ginobli has 7 (8 if we’re counting the no-call) costly turnovers, Danny Green finally hits a shooting slump and goes 1 of 7, Shane Battier finally gets out of his shooting slump and goes 3 of 4, Mike Miller hits both his 3 point attempts and goes 1 of 1 with 1 shoe on.

And that was one of the greatest, if not the greatest, Finals games of all time.
 
 

Game 7

Onto a final 48 minutes for all the marbles. Danny Green couldn’t buy a bucket going 1 for 12, and Shane Battier couldn’t miss going 6 for 6 (that’s about a 30 point swing right there). Wade (23pts/10reb) has a nice game but Bosh is scoreless in the biggest game of his life. For the Spurs the consistent play (all series long) of Duncan (24pts/10reb) and Leonard (19pts/16reb) was undermined by the inconsistent play (all series long) of Parker (10pts/4ast) and Ginobli (18pts/5ast – and 4 brutal turnovers). Ultimately it came down to Lebron, (37pts/12reb) hitting jumper (dagger), after jumper (dagger), after jumper (dagger).
 

Your 2013 NBA Champion – Miami Heat.

Lebrons game 7 performance showed a few things. 1) His growth, from a bad to a great shooter. 2) His balls, to win that game in that way. 3) His potential, the guy is getting better, the guy that’s won 4 MVP’s and back to back rings is getting better – a very scary thought.

Quick thoughts on next year…

Lebron better be getting better, because he was getting less help than last year from Wade, and Bosh was getting massacred by Duncan. If the Heat are going to pull off the 3-peat next year, James will have to really, really earn it – because the big 3 is fading fast.

Wade is 31, and although still very good, rarely is he great. His body no longer allows his game to resemble the dazzling, blinding, flash of the 06’ Finals; nowadays it’s more of a consistent high beam with the occasional knee drain induced flash. Robin will be doing less and less heavy lifting from now on in.

The Chris Bosh situation is even more worrying than Wades wobbly knees. There was talk of trading Bosh before he had even sobered up after drowning his game 7 sorrows – and they won! The reason goes beyond his pointless performance Thursday night. If the blueprint for beating the Heat wasn’t common knowledge before the playoffs, it should be now. Interior offence – in the two unlikely Bulls victories this postseason they played inside out, carving up the Heats undersized frontline with tidy interior passing and crashing the boards. More of the same was dished out in the Conference Finals by a boisterous Roy Hibbert and his Pacers, who lest we forget, also took the Heat to a game 7. All the while Tim Duncan was salivating at the chance to get one foot in the paint with Chris Bosh on his hip, a chance he got and used to punctuate the gaping hole in Miami’s defence, exposing Bosh’s abilities as a post defender and rim protector, and raising serious questions as to whether his strength as a stretch four floor spacer outweigh his weaknesses in the paint.

These questions and a Greg Oden renaissance notwithstanding – any team trying to knock Lebron James off his perch next summer will have to find a way of stopping him getting to the rim without letting him shoot or leaving assassins with one shoe on open around the 3 point line. Lebron James, “Ain’t got no worries”, except a French free agent named Boris of course, who should be expecting calls from a number of would be contenders pretty soon.
Roll on next year...

5 comments:

  1. Nice write up. Just a couple of pointers though:

    1) Wade next year. Expect Wade to take a mysterious flight to Germany to get a Kobe Bryant-sized dose of infant's growth hormone injected into each knee.

    Wade is the biggest ? for how far this team goes next year because unlike Bosh, he is untradeable (not even Riley is that heartless... is he?). The problem with Wade is he's not really known as a summertime workhorse - a lot of people think he is so injured every year. If he takes a hint and gets his ass in the rehab room this year MIA is the odds on favorite to threepeat. If he slacks off all summer, then yes, LeBron is probably gonna be gone. The point is you can't count him out because he's still young enough that if he puts in the time, he can have a serious bounce back season next year.

    2) Chris Bosh. I don't believe this "Chris Bosh got exposed" bullshit. Spoelstra ruined Chris Bosh. In Toronto Bosh consistently averaged 9-10 RPG. In MIA, Spoelstra had this dream of positionless basketball and turned Chris Bosh into in a jump shooter.

    Put it this way... I think if the Heat someone managed to trade Bosh for Hibbert (not happening, just an example), Spoelstra will be teaching Hibbert to shoot mid-range jumpers and threes.

    3) Biggest obstacle for the Heat is going to be just overall exhaustion. One three teams in NBA history have ever made more than 4 consecutive NBA finals (win or lose) - The Celtics and Lakers each made it 4 times while winning 2 of 4, and the Celtics had a separate run of 11 straight appearances and 10 titles.

    No team has made 4 consecutive appearances since the Celtics in 1987. The Lakers from 00-02 and 08-10 each made the finals 3 times in a row, and each time in their 4th year had the same exact team, but couldn't make it out of the 2nd round. So it's going to be an uphill battle for LeBron & Co.

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  2. Fair points on Wade, and the work Kobe put in last year is testament to what a gruelling conditioning programme can do for you. I didn't know he was a slacker in the summer that's interesting.

    Yeh Spo is fucking with Bosh's natural game, but defensively he just gets abused. Whether it's the system or Bosh or a combination of both - the way to beat Miami is in the paint. Teams know this and will try to exploit it. The Heat would be crazy not to address it.

    Those Finals stats are mad, damn Jordan taking that time off... The Heat are still odds on next season though. I would love to see them have to beat the Pacers and the Bulls on the way to the finals - where they played Memphis - that would be so brutal!

    Who do you think is the biggest threat to the Heat next year?

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  3. In the East - probably CHI/IND. IND pushed MIA to 7 without their #1 scorer. That's insane. I wouldn't be shocked if next year's ECF were CHI vs. IND (I'm not betting on it.... but I wouldn't be shocked).

    But honestly, the biggest threat to the Heat next year will be OKC. Everyone keeps saying: "Oh, even if Westbrook was healthy, SAS would have beat OKC in the playoffs." Bullshit. Check this stat:

    OKC cumulative +/- differential for the season was +9.2. Miami was +7.9. OKC finished +1.3 ahead of MIA, despite winning 6 less games. That's insane. A lot of people believe +/- differential is the number 1 predictor of post-season success. This is why:

    In NBA history, 10 teams have finished with a higher +/- differential than +9.2. 9 of them won the title. The only team that DIDN'T win the title: The 71-72 Bucks posted an +11.2 but had the unfortunate distinction of running into the 71-72 Lakers who posted a +12.3 that season in the WCF (yeah, the Bucks used to be a west team).

    So yeah, I think OKC as presently constructed WOULD HAVE been the biggest threat to MIA this season. Assuming they can keep Kev Mart I expect them to be the #1 threat next season.

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  4. Whaaaaaat? Love that stat. They could be making moves aswell shopping Perk and trying to move up in the draft. That list of top 10 +/- differential teams would make for interesting analysis. If they move up they should take KCP, if not then Michael Carter Williams.

    And another reason the Spurs probably don't beat a healthy Thunder is Sefolosha on Parker. Completely changed last years series.

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  5. If you are interested: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NBA_teams_by_single_season_win_percentage. You can sort the list by differential. OKC isn't actually on this list, because it only includes teams who had a win % of atleast 75% (62+ wins). The fact OKC put up a +9.2 while "only" winning 60 games is itself remarkable. I left the 46-47 WASH Captiols because that league had 11 teams and was called the BAA.

    I don't see OKC trading up because Perkins' contract is more of albatross than an actual trade chip. Unless they are willing to add Perry Jones III/Jeremy Lamb into their offer, I think they'll stand pat. At their current position i'd take Shabazz Muhammed. The guy has #1 overall potential but is expected to drop because of questions regarding character/motivation. But based on potential, I think he could be the steal of this draft. On OKC he'll be in a low pressure situation where he can develop. And he has an NBA ready offense so Brooks can use him for offense/defense switches with Thabo.

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