OFFSEASON ANALYSIS: The Draft, Deron Williams and the new look Brooklyn Nets, and The Knicks response.

Offseason Analysis

A few initial thoughts on a crazy couple of weeks…

THE DRAFT.

I stayed up to watch it live, and wasn’t disappointed. One of the few universal draft truths is that anything can happen; on draft night 2013 we were treated to an emphatic validation of this fact – a night when everything seemed to happen. A number of factors combined to create the unique context from which that crazy night was born.

Before it even started, the basketball world (especially the Brooklyn fans at the Barclays centre) was drunk on a rumour that KG and Paul Pierce (and Jason Terry… meh) were on their way to the Nets, signaling the end of an era in Boston, and the start of one in Brooklyn. The move was confirmed not long into the first round, but the excitement this potentially seismic power shift in the Atlantic division created in the buildup to the draft set the tone for the night.

Already tipsy at the prospect of the best starting five in basketball, Brooklyn fans were feeling feisty, and when Commissioner David Stern stepped up to the podium for the last time in his 30 year tenure, he was greeted by a traditional crescendo of boos. The boos encapsulated a cocktail of emotions towards Stern; love, hate, respect, appreciation – a confusing sentiment toward a controversial figure. Never one to shy away from the spotlight, especially on the evening of the his last dance at the draft, Stern lapped up the (faux?) animosity in his typical smug manner, goading and heckling the masses exquisitely and pausing frequently to savour his last moments of infamy. The interplay added an entertaining and comical sub plot to the draft itself.

And then the actual (drama) draft started…

“With the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers, select…”, at this point Stern  noticeably paused as his mouth prepared to sound out the “A” – presumably of Alex Len – who was at or near the top of mock drafts everywhere (the expected top 5, in a multitude of orders, was Len, Noel, McLemore, Porter, Oladipo). “…Anthony Bennett…” – WHAT! Bill Simmons’ next four utterances were, “Woah” (x2), “I need medical help”, and “Oh my god” – it was the most shocking number 1 pick in recent memory. But it was perennial reachers Cleveland picking, the same Cleveland who took Dion Waiters 4^th last year, and Thompson 4^th in 2011 – So yeah, the shock was mitigated. The weirdest thing wasn’t so much Bennett going 1, but Nerlens Noel plummeting down the board to 6, with another reach by another perennial reacher – Cody Zeller to the Bobcats – taking his place at the 4 spot.

It was pretty funny watching the disbelief at Noels table every time he was passed up, but the draft was a blessing in disguise for the 7 footer, giving him both motivation and realistic expectations heading into his rookie campaign.

The surprising Bennett and Zeller top 5 picks were more than just reckless pickups by (bad) bold front offices though – 2013 was a good year for risk taking. As a weak draft, taking a guy with a high ceiling who’s a bit of a project isn’t a bad move, as you’re not passing up on any sure things to get your guy – the Cavs took Bennett (Good offence with bad defence) over Noel (Bad offence with good defence and bad knees). The risk is even more attractive given the strength of next year's class, with 4 all stars all but guaranteed (Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Smart). So even if your 2013 project flops or takes time to develop (I’m looking at you and your Greek phenom Milwaukee), you win in the long run by losing for one year. A few teams are looking at this offseason through the lens of 2014’s 2003-like class. (Orlando, Phoenix, Philly, Atlanta). 

Two factors contributing to the madness of the evening were the unusual amount of trades (15) and international picks (19!) – both of which are attributable to Sterns legacy, and his substantial role in implementing the collective bargaining agreement of 2011. The high number of foreign players is a testament to the global reach of today’s NBA, something the Commish worked hard to extend throughout his reign; this coupled with financial implications of the new CBA made international picks a popular theme in the draft – meaning a player can be selected and left to play and develop abroad without taking on any salary. With similar motivations, teams were trading out of the first round and out of the guaranteed money those picks get. The CBA has facilitated player movement generally, with a stronger cap and a debilitating luxury tax, if you want to give a marquee free agent a big contract, you’ve more than likely got to balance the books by shedding a comparable contract(s) – meaning a lot of movement. Whereas prior to 2011 rich teams could just spend and spend and stockpile talent – nowadays it’s more of a financial challenge to construct a winning roster.

So blockbuster deals, boos, bad drafts, good drafts and bargaining agreements combined to give us the best, and craziest, draft in years.

My 10 favourite picks were – Oladipo (2^nd to Orlando), KCP (8^th to Detroit), Burke (9^th to – via trade – Utah), Schroeder (17^th to Atlanta), Karasev (19^th to Cleveland), Snell (20^th to Bulls), Hardaway (24^th to my Knickerbockers), Jean Charles (28^th to Spurs), Ledo (43^rd to – via trade – Dallas), Kazemi (54^th – via trade – Philly).

A longer post on those guys is on the way soon…


DERON WILLIAMS AND THE NEW LOOK NETS

Brooklyn gets KG, Pierce and Jet. Boston gets Humphries, Wallace, Brooks, Bogans, Joseph and 1^st round picks in 2014, ’16 and ’18. This is a good trade for the Nets, they become a contender, with the best starting unit in basketball. However – they’re operating in a very small window given the age of the incoming trio – it wouldn’t be a push to say they had to win a ring in the next 2 years for it to work – it’s ultimate win now mode in Brooklyn.

For that to happen, they need to get a bench on the cheap and manage regular season minutes of the vets to go into the playoffs healthy.

But in terms of the starting unit, they look pretty scary. KG complements Lopez perfectly and brings much needed defence to BK, where he won’t be asked to play the 5 spot night in night out as in Boston – hopefully sparing his body a bruising down in the paint. Pierce comes off a year averaging 18/6/5, will help Williams as a secondary facilitator and team up with Johnson to create a long, offensively versatile, playoff tested (against each other) duo on the wings.

This gives D-Will a starting unit of 4 guys with a combined career average of 77 points a game, 4 guys who have all been number one options for the majority of their careers, 4 guys who can all shoot. Get those ankles fixed D-Will and you can lead the league in dimes, especially now Mr Rondo will be feeding Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries up in Boston. Williams has also got one of the greatest point guards of all time on the sidelines, rookie Coach Jason Kidd, to help him get the most out of this uber talented starting group. Expect his APG to go from 7.7 last year to 10 minimum.

The roster was gutted to make the trade. After picking up Plumlee in the draft and resigning Blatche the current bench is rounded out by Evans, Taylor, Teletovic and Terry – which is hardly a Championship second unit. I thought they blundered on not signing Korver, which was a possibility for a while and would have been a brilliant pickup, who ended up resigning in Atlanta. Of the names still available in free agency, a list which is shrinking fast now big name dominoes (Smith to Detroit, Howard to Houston, Iggy to GS) have started to fall, I’m thinking Matt Barnes, Will Bynum, JJ Barea, Shaun Livingston (all but a done deal), Kirilenko and Kenyon Martin make sense.

I would have liked to have seen Pierce and KG retire as Celtics, but next year will be fascinating to watch in Brooklyn. Who gets the ball in the clutch?


THE KNICKS RESPONSE…

We had a nice draft. Picking up Tim Hardaway Jr with the 24^th pick - he’s a great shooter, a long wing, an underrated athlete who can contribute right away. Off the floor he’s from a winning program in Michigan, where he proved he can handle the spotlight in the NCAA Championship Game, he’s a high character guy and obviously has family pedigree. In terms of NBA offspring let’s hope he’s more Steph Curry than Austin Rivers.

We also picked up undrafted combo forward C.J Leslie out of NC State. Apparently the Knicks would have taken him 24^th in certain scenarios so were delighted that he went undrafted (probably because of all the international picks stashed away abroad). An incredible athlete with questionable work ethic, he’ll add depth in the frontcourt.

Then we traded Novak, Camby, Richardson, a 2016 1^st rounder and a couple of 2^nd rounders for Andrea Bargnani. Oh boy.

Here’s the background on the enigmatic Italian.

The number 1 pick in 2006 for his unique combination of size and skill set as a stretch 7 footer, he’s been underwhelming in his 7 years in the league so far. Given his size, he’s an impossibly bad rebounder – think worst-in-the-league bad. He’s also a bad-to-terrible defender depending on who you talk to; his slight build leaves him vulnerable in the paint, and his lack of foot speed leaves him vulnerable on the perimeter – but it’s not just his physical tools that hold him back, his help defense is Amare-like. The only thing that slightly offsets these liabilities is his ability to stroke it from deep and drag opposition bigs out of the paint, something he’s never been spectacular at, and in the last couple of years has been worryingly bad at.

Not a pretty picture – and so the debate goes…

Optimistic Knick fan – “We didn’t lose any value on the court. Steve Novak although a sniper from behind the arc and a fan favourite, has been useless 2 straight postseasons, moving him frees up minutes for the rookie Hardaway who’s a good shooter with a more polished all around game. Camby and Richardson hardly saw the floor last year.”

Objective Observer – “Firstly, you didn’t have to give anything up, they would have traded him for a washing machine, new GM Ujiri made it clear his first order of business was to axe Bargnani, who was a likely candidate to be amnestied as most execs saw his deteriorating game and massive contract as untradeable.  Secondly, you didn’t gain anything on the court from a guy who’s gone from bad to worse in the last few years.”

Optimistic Knick fan – “It’s true that he’s shot the ball badly the last 2 years, but he was battling injury this past season, and was completely unmotivated to play in a city and franchise that had given up on him. He won’t have to be the number 1 option in New York which he struggled with in Toronto. A fresh start in New York in a role with a more manageable offensive load off the bench could rejuvenate his career. Having barely played last season he’d finally be healthy come the new season. He was a number one pick for a reason and has shown flashes of All Star potential that are worth the risk.”

Objective Observer – “Ok so assuming he gets out of his 2 year slump and the change of scenery helps him rediscover his stroke, he still doesn’t help you’re team. The Knicks need rebounding and defense, two areas which were brutally exposed by Indiana in the playoffs. Andrea has always been torrid in these areas. Not only does it make no sense in terms of team needs, it messes with the Knicks identity in the Melo era, it all but kills the small ball tactic of Anthony at the 4 with 1 big and 3 shooters/playmakers – when the Knicks were at their best, and raises questions about rotations with Stoudemire, let alone the horrifying prospect of having the 2 defensive liabilities on the floor at the same time.”

The Optimistic Knick fan looks pissed as he struggles to muster up a counter argument…

Objective Observer – “And on top of all this, you still managed to give up to much for a guy you don’t need – why give up the picks? Having given up 2014’s first rounder to get Anthony, and second rounder to get Camby, the Knicks send the second rounder they picked up from OKC for Brewer earlier in the year to Toronto, meaning they’ll be without a stake in the deepest draft in a decade. You’ve already given up second rounders in 2015 to get Camby and 2016 to get Felton, and now 2017 for Bargnani. Draft picks are more valuable than ever under the new CBA as a way of adding talent on the cheap, and the Knicks have all too easily given up multiple draft chips yet again.”

Somewhere in Toronto Masai Ujiri sits in front of a fire stroking a cat and laughing an evil, evil laugh.

 

Honestly I’d rather re-sign Kenyon Martin than Bargnani. When held up against Brooklyn’s blockbuster offseason so far, the Knicks acquisition of a 7 foot question mark is pretty depressing.

The Knicks then resigned J.R Smith, which I’m OK with at best (for less money we could have had Toney Allen). I was hoping we’d spend the Smith money on something we needed and give more time to Shump and newboy Hardaway at the 2 spot. At least we resigned my boy Prigioni.

Ah, being a Knick fan is fun…

Reaction to the big free agency moves (Dwight, Iggy, Smith) coming soon.