Light at the end of the tunnel in Sacramento?

Ah I remember when the Sacramento Kings were good. As in damn good. At the turn of the century the Kings were the most exciting team in the NBA; with their intoxicating, fast paced, selfless – and most importantly – winning style of play. Sacramento was the hardest place to play in the league - a beacon of small market success. They were a dream to watch. Brash young point guard Jason “White Chocolate” Williams (John Stockton’s evil twin) was dropping jaws (and selling jerseys – good for top 5 in the league his rookie year) in living rooms across the country with his outrageous behind the back, pinpoint, fast as a bullet, lookaways. Peja Stojakovic was jovially sinking three balls like layups. Chris Webber and Vlade Divac were defying the laws of being big – nimbly threading needle like passes in the paint to form a devastating interior tag team since unrivalled. Even when they lost Williams, their flashy fulcrum, for the pretty mundane Mike Bibby in 2001 – they were still one of the best teams to watch; and flat out best teams, in the league, and enjoyed 2 more seasons of contending for a championship.

From ’03 to ’05 things started to go downhill. Then in ’06 they fell off a cliff.

The last 7 years for the Kings have been nothing short of a nightmare; the franchise almost suffocated under a barrage of dodgy front office decisions, overrated players, ugly basketball and a lot of losing. Last season the Kings were on life support and were a Board of Governors meeting away from being sold and relocated to Seattle – a city still heartbroken from its own NBA breakup. They were given life, however, when NBA pogo-stick come politician - and current Mayor of Sacramento - Kevin Johnson rallied the troops and orchestrated a dramatic off the court fourth quarter comeback, bringing together a consortium led by business tycoon Vivek Ranadive to buy the franchise from the Maloof family – keeping the Kings in Sacramento - and ushering in a welcome new era, with a new arena on the way, for the city and it’s beloved but forgotten Kings.

The new era has already seen a near overhaul of the entire organization.

The Owners…

Given the Maloof family's sad indifference to the misfortunes of the franchise, which bordered on willful neglect in the last few seasons, any change is a good change in ownership.

The family was replaced by business tycoon Vivek Ranadive and friends.

When the deal saving the Kings went through, Vivek called his young center Demarcus Cousins and said, as his buddy Steve Jobs used to, “Let’s put a dent in the universe”. This tells us a few things; 1) He’s a pretty successful businessman with pretty successful buddies, 2) He’s ambitious (let’s try and put a dent in the Pacific Division before we take on the universe Vivek), 3) He understands that Cousins is a big part of the puzzle going forward, and 4) He actually gives a rats ass.

The Front Office…

Geoff Petrie and his prehistoric philosophy on scouting, analytics, and cap management have hurt the Kings in recent years. Petrie had highs and lows in his 19 year career in Sacramento – highs included - 8 straight playoff appearances, a Game 7 away from the NBA finals in 2002, and 2x Executive of the Year Awards. Lows included – 7 straight playoff no-shows, trading Mike Bibby for some pots and pans, drafting Jimmer Fredette (and taking on some bad, bad contracts to do it), and drafting Thomas Robinson over Damian Lillard, Harrison Barnes and Andre Drummond. He was a class act throughout, but is a relic in a new age dominated by metrics and mini-mid levels.

His replacement – new General Manager Pete D’Alessandro – is a massive upgrade. He is the antithesis of Petrie as a true 21^st century GM well versed in the arts of capology and analytics. After 3 successful seasons in Denver’s front office, Pete’s fingerprints are already all over the Kings roster – drafting Ben McLemore with the 7^th pick, freeing up a starting guard spot for Ben by deciding not to re-sign Tyreke Evans, but getting some value for him by bringing in underrated point guard Greivis Vasquez in a sign and trade, bringing in Carl Landry in free agency, and somehow getting Mbah a Moute for two second round picks – an absolute bargain. That’s 4 starters to go along with Demarcus Cousins in the middle.

The rebuild is in full swing only a couple of months into D’Alessandro’s time in Sacramento.

The Coaching Staff…

With the epic ownership and front office failures – it’s no wonder there have been 5 coaches in 6 years in Sactown. With the coaching carousel working overtime, the team was denied the stability and time needed to create an on court identity. It also fractured player development on a roster full of young talent in need of consistent direction. After orchestrating the aforementioned "Greatest Show On Earth”, Rick Adelman’s highly successful time on the sidelines was inexplicably ended in 2006 by ownership who neglected to re-sign arguably the best Coach in Kings history (possibly the dumbest decision in Kings history), paving the way for a 7 year playoff drought and a period of coaching chaos….

Erik Musselman was a dud after a losing season and numerous run-ins with the law. His replacement Reggie Theus was remembered for being at the helm when Mike Bibby was controversially traded and introducing a one-two punch of Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes… unsurprisingly he didn’t last long. Kenny Natt led the Kings to the worst record in the league in his 1 year in charge. Paul Westphaul ended the 1 and done streak with 3 seasons on the sidelines – but failed to mesh the young duo of Evans and Cousins and was let go halfway into the 11/12 season after butting heads with the latter. Keith Smart was a cheap replacement and posted an uninspiring 48-93 record in 1 and a half seasons on the sidelines, eventually moving Tyreke to his natural shooting guard spot after initially trying him at small forward (where he was uncomfortable and in constant foul trouble). He was axed at the end of last season as soon as the new ownership group took over.

Enter Mike Malone for the start of the 2013/14 season.

Malone was handpicked by Ranadive after spending time together in Golden State (Where Ranadive was a minority owner and Malone was an Assistant last year). He’s a defensive strategist who has had a hand in defensive leaps in his last 2 coaching roles – the Hornets in 10/11 jumped from 21^st the previous year to 5^th in opponents PPG, and the Warriors in 12/13 jumped from 28^th the previous year to 19^th. He is widely respected as an Assistant throughout the league, and was in demand this summer as a Head Coaching candidate – but looked no further than Sacramento because of his close relationship with the new owner – who has assured Malone that he will be given time, and won’t be expected to perform any miracles this year. As a rookie Head Coach, his inexperience will be mitigated by the addition of his Dad, former NBA Head Coach Brendan Malone, as an Assistant to his staff.

He’s a promising new coach, and if he can in any way live up to his lofty, “Next Tom Thibodeau” label – he’ll be doing just fine.

The Roster…

As a shooter, lottery pick Ben McLemore should be a better fit with Cousins than Evans, who was an improved but unspectacular shooter and more at home at the rim than on the perimeter last year. Cousins and McLemore will form a more traditional post-perimeter one-two punch – as well as saving the Kings a hefty wad of cash with an extension for Evans.

The offensive foundation of Cousins/McLemore will benefit greatly from the addition of Greivis Vasquez. The Venezuelan is a point guard with size and excellent playmaking ability to take advantage of his elevated vantage point. More savvy than strong and clever than quick, Vasquez was a pleasant surprise for the Pelicans (Hornets) last season – displaying a reliable shooting touch and array of floaters in the paint. His real strength is in his pass first mentality; good for 3^rd in the league at 9 dimes a game last season on a bad offensive team. Impressively, this pass first mentality is something he has developed since getting into the league, adjusting his game from coming out of college where he was a shoot first point guard at Maryland. At 26, he’s fairly young, and is a steady pure point guard – who shouldn’t be too expensive should the Kings decide to retain him after next season - the last year of his current deal.

The gamble with Vasquez is on the defensive end – where he has a reputation as a liability. This is where Mike Malone can earn his money, creating a system to hide his lack of quickness and limit his vulnerability to the Ty Lawson’s of this world. His struggles on that end of the floor notwithstanding, he’s an upgrade from Isaiah Thomas – whose offensive minded game is better suited to giving the second unit scoring punch than setting the table for Cousins and McLemore, and who isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaught himself.

At small forward the Kings have bought in Luc Mbah a Moute from the Bucks for two second round picks. This is a steal for a guy with a lot of talent at a reasonable cost - 2 years and 9 million remaining on his contract. GM D’Alessandro has long sought after Luc, after signing him to an offer sheet with the Nuggets in 2011, only to have the offer matched by the Bucks. He’s probably one of the best kept defensive secrets in the league – capable of guarding multiple positions and an excellent isolation defender on the wing. His knock is his shooting, which was at a career low (he wasn’t healthy) 40% last year, the same clip that John Salmons (who really needs to be amnestied) shot in the starting SF spot last year – so you won’t be losing anything offensively. His sale price of a couple of second rounders has a lot to do with health woes the last two years, which is a worry going forward for the Kings, but if healthy he’s a brilliant pickup.

The latest addition of the summer has been signing free agent forward Carl Landry, who has played 81 games in two separate stints with the Kings in 09/10 and 10/11. In the first stretch, over 28 games with starters minutes – Landry averaged 18 points and 6 boards a game. In his third stretch in Sacramento, Landry is coming over from Golden State with Mike Malone. He’s a consistent and efficient, 53% from the field over his 8 year career, scorer who will bring a veteran presence to the locker room. With previous ties to both the organization and the new Head Coach – Landry should fit right in.

With ownership, the front office, and coaching staff on the same page for the first time in a long time; and a promising, hopefully balanced and complimentary starting unit – it’s not crazy to call this the beginning of the end of the nightmarish playoff drought in California’s capital.

Better late than never I suppose.

Grading free agency pickups: Howard, Iguodala, Smith.

Howard to Houston

Houston was the best destination for Dwight for a number of reasons. Off the court; it’s a smaller - but not too small - market with a fraction of the stifling pressure he faced in Lala land, the Rockets are a franchise with a (albeit modest) winning tradition and a history of talented big men as franchise players. It’s somewhere in the middle of Orlando and LA as an organization, with the added perks of a healthy 23 year old superstar who casts a relatively small shadow as opposed to a banged up 35 year old superstar with the biggest shadow in the league, and an extremely innovative front office. Much has been made of Dwight passing up 30 million dollars to sign in Houston rather than L.A in the name of winning, how much of this 30 million he’ll make up via the lack of tax in Texas I don’t know, but in my opinion signing an 86 million dollar contract can in no context be properly considered selfless, nor a sacrifice.

On the court; he joins a fledgling roster led by James Harden and rounded out by Parsons, Lin, Asik, Beverley, Garcia, Motiejunas, Jones and not much else. Assuming and hoping for Houston’s sake he’s healthy and is anywhere close to his 3 time defensive player of the year form in Orlando, he’ll be a nice fit with this group and their style of play. Houston aren’t bashful from beyond the arc, and with the addition of Dwight will likely be looking to fill remaining roster spots with gunners, which should give him plenty of room to display his improved post moves developed by two of the smoothest operators the game has ever seen down low – McHale and Olajuwan. Lin and Harden are both brilliant running the pick and roll, giving Howard plenty of easy buckets on dishes and misses at the rim. He’ll need to get in shape to fit in and take advantage of the fast pace McHale likes, but once he does that he’ll be a pest for defenses on quick paint pins and transition pick and rolls. Not to mention his impact on defense, as one of the best interior defenders of all time he should quickly make the paint an unattractive prospect for the opposition, and when he gets in foul trouble (which he will - regularly) Asik can step in, bang, and eat up the glass.

A lot of this is subject to an unchanged core group – which is looking less and less likely. Asik is bummed at the Howard signing given his great season emerging as one of the better centers in the league and has asked for a trade – but Houston are keen to hang onto him, and there are rumours flying around that Lin is being aggressively shopped. Regardless – the core of Howard, Harden and Parsons (best contract in the league from a GM’s standpoint) looks safe.

Dwight made a great decision (finally), but he’s fresh out of excuses now as long as he’s healthy. He’s got a tailor made coach who will concoct a tailor made offence for him, a front office who moved mountains (and bucketloads of young talent) to get him, with probably the most valuable young superstar in the league at his side, in a city that loves him – and we all know how much Dwight needs the love.

I’m not expecting a ring this year or even next, everyone (even superman) has to pay their dues. But the foundational pieces are in place - Howard’s fate rests on his own gigantic (but fragile) shoulders.

Pickup Grade – A

Iguodala to Golden State

In a league dominated by superstar wings, perimeter defenders are a rare commodity that the Warriors rightly weren’t prepared to pass up on when Andre became a possibility. Iggy is a top 5 perimeter defender in the league, but importantly also does everything else well (except foul shooting weirdly – which has declined the last 4 years to a horrible 57% last season?), he’s a reliable shooter and has improved from three in recent years (Mark Jackson is desperate for more 3 point shooting on the roster…), he’s a very good passer, a strong rebounder, he’s dynamite in transition, is selfless, extremely low maintenance and will provide some welcome leadership and experience to a young Warrior roster.

Golden States front office did well to create cap space for his 48 million dollar contract by dumping Rush, Jefferson and Biedrins on Utah – who took the salary hit in order to snag 2 first round picks. A lot of people are tagging Jack and Landry onto this list, who the Warriors lost to free agency in the wake of the Iguodala move. But I reckon GS were resigned to losing both those guys anyway, who earnt themselves a payday with last season’s stellar play (Jack 25 million over 4, Landry 26 million over 4). GS saw this coming, picking up young point guard Nemanja Nedovic in the draft, and now adding the gritty Marreese Speights for frontcourt depth – who brings a defensive pedigree earned during 2 seasons (11-12, 12-13) in Memphis and an underrated offensive game – a nice pickup.

There are questions for the new look Warriors though – someones going to lose minutes in the frontcourt – that someone absolutely should not be Harrison Barnes – who was arguably Mark Jackson’s most consistent playoff performer last year in a ridiculously promising rookie season. That leaves David Lee. Plan A is to trade him, but his 3 year 44 million dollar contract makes that a hard sell, meaning he’ll likely have to take a cut on playing time. The new minutes split will likely be built around one of if not the scariest small ball units in the league of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Iguodala + 1 big. Andre and his previous employer, the Denver Nuggets, witnessed firsthand how devastating the Warriors can be in a run and gun style in the first round of last season’s playoffs. That series probably had a lot to do with Iggy signing on with Golden State – from both sides of the fence. From the Warriors perspective the Nuggets series was a turning point in a commitment to high octane small ball – as they beat the Nuggets at their own furious paced game. An injury to David Lee in Game 1 forced Jackson to fully commit to the trending small ball philosophy, using a combination of Barnes, Green and Landry in lieu of Lee – which turned out to be a major success, and a tantalizing taste of the potential of sizing down long term. From Iguodala’s side the series was quite possibly a catalyst for the idea of relocating his talents to the Bay area and a system perfectly suited to his game.

The pickup will improve an already highly capable (when focused) defense, as Iguodala instantly becomes the Warriors best defender, if they can put an exclamation point on this defensive leap by losing their weakest defensive link in David Lee then the move will have a huge impact on that end of the floor. With the assumption of a small ball master plan motivating the move, and no negative impact on Harrison Barnes’ time on the floor – I love the pickup.

If Steph Curry can keep his ankles healthy, watch out for the Warriors next year.

Pickup Grade – A

Josh Smith to Detroit

Josh Smith, who averaged 18 points, 8 boards, 4 dimes, 2 blocks and a steal last year, was looking for a max deal this summer. His stat line would indicate that this was a reasonable-ish expectation. There is a reason however, why he had to settle for a not insignificant – but not max – deal of 56 million over 4 years with the Detroit Pistons.  It’s the same reason he’s yet to make an all star appearance in his career, why Atlanta let him walk, and why Detroit were the only team seriously considering signing him for (relatively) big money – that reason is his shooting. It’s not just that he can’t shoot, it’s that he loves to jack it up, it’s that for 8 out of his 9 years in the league he lacked the discipline not to do the thing that he sucks at. That one year 09/10 that Mike Woodson somehow incepted some discipline into Smith – he took 7 threes, played within his offensive limitations (5 feet of the rim) and put up then career highs in rebounds, assists and steals (since that year he’s taken 154, 109 and a career high 201 3 balls last season). That year, 09/10, he finished 2^nd to Howard in Defensive Player of the Year voting and shot 50% from the floor. That’s how good he can be; and in the right situation he could - with a coach that can keep him focused, a stretch 5 with a mid range game to give him paint space (but saying that he’s had Al Horford all these years) and a locker room where he doesn’t have to be a leader – conceivably find that discipline again.

Unfortunately Detroit is categorically not that utopian situation.

Playing the 4 emphasizes Smith’s strengths.  Extreme athleticism, paint protection, defensive rebounding, clinical finishing at the rim, more than adequate and surprisingly selfless distribution, and a nose for the ball on the defensive end. Unfortunately, the Pistons already have the 4 and 5 spots filled with the young duo of Drummond and Monroe. That means Pistons coach Mo Cheeks will either have to cut one of this promising duo’s minutes – stifling development and preventing chemistry between the two growing; or, ram a Josh Smith shaped peg into a floor spacing wing shaped hole. At the 3 his feet are a step slow and his body a few pounds too heavy to stay in front of quicker small forwards on defense, and his shooting a bit too heinously woeful for him to even remotely space the floor and keep defenders honest on offence.

The Detroit faithful are going to have to endure a painfully steady dose of 1 of 3 scenarios; 1) Smith, Monroe, and Drummond bumping heads and competing for space that doesn’t exist in the paint, 2) That horrible, apocalyptic moment when Smith squares up and his defender steps back a couple of meters or 3) Andre Drummond, one of the most intriguing prospects in the league, with a seemingly unlimited ceiling, sitting on the bench.

Off the court Smith’s not exactly low maintenance either, he’s not an absolute knucklehead, but he’s a potential problem – he left Atlanta after they neglected to give him the max deal he publicly pronounced he was worth, and isn’t the type of guy to patiently knuckle down in an uncomfortable role and potentially lose a few games as his team adjusts to his presence, especially if an impatient fan base are getting on his case in search of a return on a 56 million dollar investment.

So J Smoove could be a pretty rough fit in Detroit; one (pretty expensive) positional project too far on a roster with Knight learning the 1 and Stuckey learning the 2. The Smith/Drummond/Monroe positional quandary is slightly similar to the Iguodala/Barnes situation in Golden State – except Joe Dumars probably doesn’t have a “Big Ball” revolution in mind… at least I hope he doesn’t.

The Pistons won’t be terrible next year, Smith’s still one of the best players in the league not to be an All Star yet, they’ll win 35-40 games (up from 29 last year) and are an outside bet for the 8^th spot in the East. Smiths defense should win them those extra 6+ games. But I feel like it’s a case of 1 step forward and 2 steps backward with this move in the longer term – being a 40 win team is a bad place to be in the NBA, with many teams finding themselves stuck in perpetual mediocrity – unable to improve drastically through the draft and unable to attract major talent to a contending franchise.

Not a good fit.

Pickup Grade – C

OFFSEASON ANALYSIS: The Draft, Deron Williams and the new look Brooklyn Nets, and The Knicks response.

Offseason Analysis

A few initial thoughts on a crazy couple of weeks…

THE DRAFT.

I stayed up to watch it live, and wasn’t disappointed. One of the few universal draft truths is that anything can happen; on draft night 2013 we were treated to an emphatic validation of this fact – a night when everything seemed to happen. A number of factors combined to create the unique context from which that crazy night was born.

Before it even started, the basketball world (especially the Brooklyn fans at the Barclays centre) was drunk on a rumour that KG and Paul Pierce (and Jason Terry… meh) were on their way to the Nets, signaling the end of an era in Boston, and the start of one in Brooklyn. The move was confirmed not long into the first round, but the excitement this potentially seismic power shift in the Atlantic division created in the buildup to the draft set the tone for the night.

Already tipsy at the prospect of the best starting five in basketball, Brooklyn fans were feeling feisty, and when Commissioner David Stern stepped up to the podium for the last time in his 30 year tenure, he was greeted by a traditional crescendo of boos. The boos encapsulated a cocktail of emotions towards Stern; love, hate, respect, appreciation – a confusing sentiment toward a controversial figure. Never one to shy away from the spotlight, especially on the evening of the his last dance at the draft, Stern lapped up the (faux?) animosity in his typical smug manner, goading and heckling the masses exquisitely and pausing frequently to savour his last moments of infamy. The interplay added an entertaining and comical sub plot to the draft itself.

And then the actual (drama) draft started…

“With the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers, select…”, at this point Stern  noticeably paused as his mouth prepared to sound out the “A” – presumably of Alex Len – who was at or near the top of mock drafts everywhere (the expected top 5, in a multitude of orders, was Len, Noel, McLemore, Porter, Oladipo). “…Anthony Bennett…” – WHAT! Bill Simmons’ next four utterances were, “Woah” (x2), “I need medical help”, and “Oh my god” – it was the most shocking number 1 pick in recent memory. But it was perennial reachers Cleveland picking, the same Cleveland who took Dion Waiters 4^th last year, and Thompson 4^th in 2011 – So yeah, the shock was mitigated. The weirdest thing wasn’t so much Bennett going 1, but Nerlens Noel plummeting down the board to 6, with another reach by another perennial reacher – Cody Zeller to the Bobcats – taking his place at the 4 spot.

It was pretty funny watching the disbelief at Noels table every time he was passed up, but the draft was a blessing in disguise for the 7 footer, giving him both motivation and realistic expectations heading into his rookie campaign.

The surprising Bennett and Zeller top 5 picks were more than just reckless pickups by (bad) bold front offices though – 2013 was a good year for risk taking. As a weak draft, taking a guy with a high ceiling who’s a bit of a project isn’t a bad move, as you’re not passing up on any sure things to get your guy – the Cavs took Bennett (Good offence with bad defence) over Noel (Bad offence with good defence and bad knees). The risk is even more attractive given the strength of next year's class, with 4 all stars all but guaranteed (Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Smart). So even if your 2013 project flops or takes time to develop (I’m looking at you and your Greek phenom Milwaukee), you win in the long run by losing for one year. A few teams are looking at this offseason through the lens of 2014’s 2003-like class. (Orlando, Phoenix, Philly, Atlanta). 

Two factors contributing to the madness of the evening were the unusual amount of trades (15) and international picks (19!) – both of which are attributable to Sterns legacy, and his substantial role in implementing the collective bargaining agreement of 2011. The high number of foreign players is a testament to the global reach of today’s NBA, something the Commish worked hard to extend throughout his reign; this coupled with financial implications of the new CBA made international picks a popular theme in the draft – meaning a player can be selected and left to play and develop abroad without taking on any salary. With similar motivations, teams were trading out of the first round and out of the guaranteed money those picks get. The CBA has facilitated player movement generally, with a stronger cap and a debilitating luxury tax, if you want to give a marquee free agent a big contract, you’ve more than likely got to balance the books by shedding a comparable contract(s) – meaning a lot of movement. Whereas prior to 2011 rich teams could just spend and spend and stockpile talent – nowadays it’s more of a financial challenge to construct a winning roster.

So blockbuster deals, boos, bad drafts, good drafts and bargaining agreements combined to give us the best, and craziest, draft in years.

My 10 favourite picks were – Oladipo (2^nd to Orlando), KCP (8^th to Detroit), Burke (9^th to – via trade – Utah), Schroeder (17^th to Atlanta), Karasev (19^th to Cleveland), Snell (20^th to Bulls), Hardaway (24^th to my Knickerbockers), Jean Charles (28^th to Spurs), Ledo (43^rd to – via trade – Dallas), Kazemi (54^th – via trade – Philly).

A longer post on those guys is on the way soon…


DERON WILLIAMS AND THE NEW LOOK NETS

Brooklyn gets KG, Pierce and Jet. Boston gets Humphries, Wallace, Brooks, Bogans, Joseph and 1^st round picks in 2014, ’16 and ’18. This is a good trade for the Nets, they become a contender, with the best starting unit in basketball. However – they’re operating in a very small window given the age of the incoming trio – it wouldn’t be a push to say they had to win a ring in the next 2 years for it to work – it’s ultimate win now mode in Brooklyn.

For that to happen, they need to get a bench on the cheap and manage regular season minutes of the vets to go into the playoffs healthy.

But in terms of the starting unit, they look pretty scary. KG complements Lopez perfectly and brings much needed defence to BK, where he won’t be asked to play the 5 spot night in night out as in Boston – hopefully sparing his body a bruising down in the paint. Pierce comes off a year averaging 18/6/5, will help Williams as a secondary facilitator and team up with Johnson to create a long, offensively versatile, playoff tested (against each other) duo on the wings.

This gives D-Will a starting unit of 4 guys with a combined career average of 77 points a game, 4 guys who have all been number one options for the majority of their careers, 4 guys who can all shoot. Get those ankles fixed D-Will and you can lead the league in dimes, especially now Mr Rondo will be feeding Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries up in Boston. Williams has also got one of the greatest point guards of all time on the sidelines, rookie Coach Jason Kidd, to help him get the most out of this uber talented starting group. Expect his APG to go from 7.7 last year to 10 minimum.

The roster was gutted to make the trade. After picking up Plumlee in the draft and resigning Blatche the current bench is rounded out by Evans, Taylor, Teletovic and Terry – which is hardly a Championship second unit. I thought they blundered on not signing Korver, which was a possibility for a while and would have been a brilliant pickup, who ended up resigning in Atlanta. Of the names still available in free agency, a list which is shrinking fast now big name dominoes (Smith to Detroit, Howard to Houston, Iggy to GS) have started to fall, I’m thinking Matt Barnes, Will Bynum, JJ Barea, Shaun Livingston (all but a done deal), Kirilenko and Kenyon Martin make sense.

I would have liked to have seen Pierce and KG retire as Celtics, but next year will be fascinating to watch in Brooklyn. Who gets the ball in the clutch?


THE KNICKS RESPONSE…

We had a nice draft. Picking up Tim Hardaway Jr with the 24^th pick - he’s a great shooter, a long wing, an underrated athlete who can contribute right away. Off the floor he’s from a winning program in Michigan, where he proved he can handle the spotlight in the NCAA Championship Game, he’s a high character guy and obviously has family pedigree. In terms of NBA offspring let’s hope he’s more Steph Curry than Austin Rivers.

We also picked up undrafted combo forward C.J Leslie out of NC State. Apparently the Knicks would have taken him 24^th in certain scenarios so were delighted that he went undrafted (probably because of all the international picks stashed away abroad). An incredible athlete with questionable work ethic, he’ll add depth in the frontcourt.

Then we traded Novak, Camby, Richardson, a 2016 1^st rounder and a couple of 2^nd rounders for Andrea Bargnani. Oh boy.

Here’s the background on the enigmatic Italian.

The number 1 pick in 2006 for his unique combination of size and skill set as a stretch 7 footer, he’s been underwhelming in his 7 years in the league so far. Given his size, he’s an impossibly bad rebounder – think worst-in-the-league bad. He’s also a bad-to-terrible defender depending on who you talk to; his slight build leaves him vulnerable in the paint, and his lack of foot speed leaves him vulnerable on the perimeter – but it’s not just his physical tools that hold him back, his help defense is Amare-like. The only thing that slightly offsets these liabilities is his ability to stroke it from deep and drag opposition bigs out of the paint, something he’s never been spectacular at, and in the last couple of years has been worryingly bad at.

Not a pretty picture – and so the debate goes…

Optimistic Knick fan – “We didn’t lose any value on the court. Steve Novak although a sniper from behind the arc and a fan favourite, has been useless 2 straight postseasons, moving him frees up minutes for the rookie Hardaway who’s a good shooter with a more polished all around game. Camby and Richardson hardly saw the floor last year.”

Objective Observer – “Firstly, you didn’t have to give anything up, they would have traded him for a washing machine, new GM Ujiri made it clear his first order of business was to axe Bargnani, who was a likely candidate to be amnestied as most execs saw his deteriorating game and massive contract as untradeable.  Secondly, you didn’t gain anything on the court from a guy who’s gone from bad to worse in the last few years.”

Optimistic Knick fan – “It’s true that he’s shot the ball badly the last 2 years, but he was battling injury this past season, and was completely unmotivated to play in a city and franchise that had given up on him. He won’t have to be the number 1 option in New York which he struggled with in Toronto. A fresh start in New York in a role with a more manageable offensive load off the bench could rejuvenate his career. Having barely played last season he’d finally be healthy come the new season. He was a number one pick for a reason and has shown flashes of All Star potential that are worth the risk.”

Objective Observer – “Ok so assuming he gets out of his 2 year slump and the change of scenery helps him rediscover his stroke, he still doesn’t help you’re team. The Knicks need rebounding and defense, two areas which were brutally exposed by Indiana in the playoffs. Andrea has always been torrid in these areas. Not only does it make no sense in terms of team needs, it messes with the Knicks identity in the Melo era, it all but kills the small ball tactic of Anthony at the 4 with 1 big and 3 shooters/playmakers – when the Knicks were at their best, and raises questions about rotations with Stoudemire, let alone the horrifying prospect of having the 2 defensive liabilities on the floor at the same time.”

The Optimistic Knick fan looks pissed as he struggles to muster up a counter argument…

Objective Observer – “And on top of all this, you still managed to give up to much for a guy you don’t need – why give up the picks? Having given up 2014’s first rounder to get Anthony, and second rounder to get Camby, the Knicks send the second rounder they picked up from OKC for Brewer earlier in the year to Toronto, meaning they’ll be without a stake in the deepest draft in a decade. You’ve already given up second rounders in 2015 to get Camby and 2016 to get Felton, and now 2017 for Bargnani. Draft picks are more valuable than ever under the new CBA as a way of adding talent on the cheap, and the Knicks have all too easily given up multiple draft chips yet again.”

Somewhere in Toronto Masai Ujiri sits in front of a fire stroking a cat and laughing an evil, evil laugh.

 

Honestly I’d rather re-sign Kenyon Martin than Bargnani. When held up against Brooklyn’s blockbuster offseason so far, the Knicks acquisition of a 7 foot question mark is pretty depressing.

The Knicks then resigned J.R Smith, which I’m OK with at best (for less money we could have had Toney Allen). I was hoping we’d spend the Smith money on something we needed and give more time to Shump and newboy Hardaway at the 2 spot. At least we resigned my boy Prigioni.

Ah, being a Knick fan is fun…

Reaction to the big free agency moves (Dwight, Iggy, Smith) coming soon.

 

2013 Finals: One for the Ages.

We won’t be forgetting the 2013 NBA finals for a long time, and as the confetti settles, the rarity of what we just witnessed is still sinking in. From the opening tip the series was ultra competitive and of an incredible standard, culminating in an enthralling Game 7 on Thursday night. The enormity of a season defining 48 minutes can go one of two ways, stifling (Lakers – Celtics ‘10) or raising the standard of play. Thankfully, 26.3 million of us were graced with the latter last week.

It was so close, the whole series seemingly played on a knife edge, being held by a Heat fan 15 beers deep, standing on the shoulders of a Spurs fan 30 beers deep, balancing on one leg, on an indo board, on ice.

What if Timmy Duncan doesn’t miss the easiest shot of his life in game 7? If Tony Parker’s hammy doesn’t flare up? If TD is on the floor for the last 30 seconds of game 6? If Ginobli doesn’t turn the ball over 6 million times? If Lebron’s headband doesn’t fall off? If Ray Allen wasn’t a machine?

Your 2013 NBA Champion – San Antonio Spurs.

So close. Here’s how it almost happened.

Game 1

Lebron’s casual triple double (18pts/18reb/10ast) wasn’t enough for Miami, who got nothing from Wade and Bosh in the 4^th quarter thanks to some stereotypically stellar Spurs defence. Tony Parker sums up his whole bi-polar series in one play by being tantalizingly close to losing the ball for the full possession before displaying an instant of genius with the off balance, step through, double pump, bank shot high off the glass, off a pirouette pivot, out of the splits as the shot clock expires with 5.2 seconds left in the game to get the Spurs the road win. Danny Green only takes a half dose of his new shooting potion, warming up with a measly 4 for 9 from behind the arc. Parker’s shot was being touted as the best of finals history (and surely the series…?), Charles Barkley said Miami could be swept (really Chuck?), and everyone agreed Lebron needed help…

 

Game 2

Lebron got help. Wade (10) and Bosh (12) were OK, but it was the role guys that really stepped up, Chalmers (19) led the team in scoring, with Allen (13) and Miller (9) chipping in. None of the Spurs showed up on offense apart from Green, who takes a full dose and lights it up with 5 of 5 from downtown. Oh and Lebron embarrassed Tiago Splitter on national TV with a monster block… (before posing for the cameras mid possession and embarrassing himself… sigh).

 

Game 3

Danny Green (7 of 9) shares the good stuff with Gary Neal (6 of 10) who contribute the lions share of a finals record breaking 16 treys for the Spurs on the way to a gargantuan 36 point blowout. Mike Miller (5 of 5) does his best to resist the onslaught but cannot make up for the consistently mediocre to date Wade (16) and Bosh (12), the absolutely woeful Chalmers (0 points and 1 assist… ouch), and a career playoff low from Lebron (15 on 7 of 21 shooting) – thanks to some awesome defence from one of the few consistent players in the series, the long armed and large handed, Kawhi Leonard. Amidst the long ball euphoria at the AT&T centre, Tony Parker left the game with a sore hamstring which bothered him the rest of the series.

Game 4

It happens very rarely – but the Heat’s big 3, to varying degrees, all played up to their name in the same game!  Bosh was fairly sizeable (20pts/13reb), Lebron was massive (33pts/11reb/4ast), as was Wade (32pts/6reb/4ast/6stl). Not much the Spurs could do about that. Heat win by 7.

Game 5

Desperate for some production from the painfully, well, old, Manu Ginobli - Popovich gives his aging Argentinean the start to boost his confidence. The move works as Manu (24pts/10ast) remembers, for one game at least, how good he once was.  Wade matches Ginobli (25pts/10ast), but Lebron can only manage an inefficient 25 points on 8 of 22 shooting when faced with the confusing reality of not being able to score on unlikely defensive juggernaught - Boris Diaw (….WTF!?!?!). The Spurs shot an awesome 60% from the field; during which, Danny Green went 6-10 from 3 point range, smashing the Finals 3 ball record of 22 makes previously held by Ray Allen (who would have the last, shrill, cold blooded, evil laugh…) by making 25 of 38 on 66% shooting from downtown. This sensational shooting display had Green odds on for Finals MVP heading to Miami for the potential Championship clinching game 6 for San Antonio.

Spurs win by 10.

After the game, Shane Battier, whose shooting touch had been as toxic as Greens had terrific, suspects some shifty behavior on Greens part and sends the otherwise useless Norris Cole to the Spurs locker room to investigate. None of the Spurs players recognize young Norris, who swipes Green’s 3-point potion, delighted to make a contribution to his teams cause.

Game 6

Sensing he is 48 minutes from cementing himself as the greatest player of his generation, Timmy Duncan (30pts/17reb) winds back the clock and hauls his Spurs into pole position going into the 4^th period. With 9 minutes to go in the 4^th, Lebron loses his headband, and unleashes the fury (of his until now shackled receding hairline) for 18 4^th quarter points, getting into the paint at will and bringing his Heat back from the brink of Finals doom and into a game that could go either way heading into the final 2 minutes. Now things really get good…

Tony Parker makes huge back to back buckets - a surprising step back 3 and unsurprising reverse layup. Putting the Spurs up by 2 - 60 seconds away from a legacy making, legacy breaking, fifth Franchise Championship. Lebron turns it over, Ginobli gets fouled and makes both free throws – 4 point game - 37 seconds left. Lebron turns it over again, Ginobli gets fouled again and splits free throws. 5 point game - 28 seconds left – the NBA trophy was in the tunnel ready to be wheeled out and awarded to the Spurs, the arena staff had lined the court with rope ready for the presentation. IT WAS THAT CLOSE. Lebron bricks a 3 pointer, Mike Miller grabs an offensive rebound, Lebron nails his second look at a 3, Leonard gets fouled and splits free throws. Spurs up 3 - 20 seconds left. Lebron bricks another 3, Bosh grabs another offensive rebound (with Duncan inexplicably on the bench… I’m looking at you Pop) and shovels it to Ray Allen in the corner – 5.2 seconds left – Ray somehow steps back behind the 3 point line as he rises up into his shooting motion and lets it fly………….“GET THOSE MOTHERFUCKING ROPES OUT OF HERE!”.

Awesome. Heat win by 1 in overtime (after Allen gets away with fouling Ginobli in the dying seconds…). Lebron (31pts/11reb/10ast) finishes with a triple double, Bosh comes up with 2 big blocks in OT but does little else, Wade (14) is OK, Ginobli has 7 (8 if we’re counting the no-call) costly turnovers, Danny Green finally hits a shooting slump and goes 1 of 7, Shane Battier finally gets out of his shooting slump and goes 3 of 4, Mike Miller hits both his 3 point attempts and goes 1 of 1 with 1 shoe on.

And that was one of the greatest, if not the greatest, Finals games of all time.

 

 

Game 7

Onto a final 48 minutes for all the marbles. Danny Green couldn’t buy a bucket going 1 for 12, and Shane Battier couldn’t miss going 6 for 6 (that’s about a 30 point swing right there). Wade (23pts/10reb) has a nice game but Bosh is scoreless in the biggest game of his life. For the Spurs the consistent play (all series long) of Duncan (24pts/10reb) and Leonard (19pts/16reb) was undermined by the inconsistent play (all series long) of Parker (10pts/4ast) and Ginobli (18pts/5ast – and 4 brutal turnovers). Ultimately it came down to Lebron, (37pts/12reb) hitting jumper (dagger), after jumper (dagger), after jumper (dagger).

 

Your 2013 NBA Champion – Miami Heat.

Lebrons game 7 performance showed a few things. 1) His growth, from a bad to a great shooter. 2) His balls, to win that game in that way. 3) His potential, the guy is getting better, the guy that’s won 4 MVP’s and back to back rings is getting better – a very scary thought.

Quick thoughts on next year…

Lebron better be getting better, because he was getting less help than last year from Wade, and Bosh was getting massacred by Duncan. If the Heat are going to pull off the 3-peat next year, James will have to really, really earn it – because the big 3 is fading fast.

Wade is 31, and although still very good, rarely is he great. His body no longer allows his game to resemble the dazzling, blinding, flash of the 06’ Finals; nowadays it’s more of a consistent high beam with the occasional knee drain induced flash. Robin will be doing less and less heavy lifting from now on in.

The Chris Bosh situation is even more worrying than Wades wobbly knees. There was talk of trading Bosh before he had even sobered up after drowning his game 7 sorrows – and they won! The reason goes beyond his pointless performance Thursday night. If the blueprint for beating the Heat wasn’t common knowledge before the playoffs, it should be now. Interior offence – in the two unlikely Bulls victories this postseason they played inside out, carving up the Heats undersized frontline with tidy interior passing and crashing the boards. More of the same was dished out in the Conference Finals by a boisterous Roy Hibbert and his Pacers, who lest we forget, also took the Heat to a game 7. All the while Tim Duncan was salivating at the chance to get one foot in the paint with Chris Bosh on his hip, a chance he got and used to punctuate the gaping hole in Miami’s defence, exposing Bosh’s abilities as a post defender and rim protector, and raising serious questions as to whether his strength as a stretch four floor spacer outweigh his weaknesses in the paint.

These questions and a Greg Oden renaissance notwithstanding – any team trying to knock Lebron James off his perch next summer will have to find a way of stopping him getting to the rim without letting him shoot or leaving assassins with one shoe on open around the 3 point line. Lebron James, “Ain’t got no worries”, except a French free agent named Boris of course, who should be expecting calls from a number of would be contenders pretty soon.

Roll on next year...

And the Coach of the Playoffs award goes to - Tom Thibodeau.

Coaches earn their money in the playoffs. In 2013 Tom Thibodeau earned every cent, laughing in the face of injury after injury whilst modestly stacking up unexpected win after win. George Karl won Coach of the Year for a great regular season, but if a coach of the playoffs award existed the Bulls coach is a runaway winner. Perhaps the only other coach in contention would be Golden States Mark Jackson, who exceeded expectations in his first taste of the playoffs as a coach. An underrated but by no means exceptional X’s and O’s guy, incredible motivator and a definite players coach – Jackson upset the fast paced Nuggets before giving the Spurs a lot of trouble in the second round where Steph Curry’s agonizing, pitiful, feeble excuses for ankles and the Spurs relentless efficiency colluded to end Jackson’s postseason. It was a great run and the future looks bright for a young and talented Warriors roster.

Tibs and his Bulls have had a conference worth’s experience with pitiful body parts this year, let’s take a painful trip down memory lane and look at the bruised and battered Bulls season…

Derrick Rose - former MVP, perennial All-Star, cornerstone of Chicago’s offense, franchise and City - was out for the season with a torn ACL.

Joakim Noah - All-Star centre, defensive general and soul of the team – battles with plantar fasciitis all year and hobbles into the playoffs. He plays but isn’t close to 100 percent.

Luol Deng – 2 time All-Star, iron man of the NBA and probably the league’s best “glue guy” -  also battles a torn ligament in his wrist all year before succumbing to meningitis in the 1^st round of the playoffs and having to sit out the remainder of the post-season.

The list is ridiculous. Kirk Hinrich missed 22 games in the regular season with a strained hip, groin, elbow as well as sore thumbs and toes. He then misses game 7 of the 1^st round and beyond with a sore calf. Richard Hamilton missed 32 games in the regular season and languished on the bench throughout the playoffs due to lack of game shape.

Putting this into Eastern Conference perspective - I wonder how good Miami would be without Lebron (Rose), Wade (Deng), Battier (Hinrich), Allen (Hamilton) and with a banged up Bosh (Noah) carrying the team?

How about Indiana without 2 Danny Grangers (Rose), George (Deng), Hill (Hinrich), Stephenson (Hamilton) and a banged up Roy Hibbert?

What about New York absent Melo (Rose), Smith (Deng), Shumpert (Hinrich), Kidd (Hamilton) and a banged up Tyson Chandler?

In this debilitated context the way Thibodeau has steered a seemingly sinking ship past the higher seeded Brooklyn in 7 games and into a competitive (to start with) series with a full strength Miami Heat is nothing short of miraculous. It is testament to an extremely talented coach implementing a system so efficient and robust that it has tamed the anarchic Nate Robinson, turned Italian journeyman Marco Belinelli into a productive playoff performer, and facilitated the growth of “Glue-All” Deng 2.0 – Jimmy Butler – who was a steal at the 30^th pick in 2011.

The greatest players and coaches of all time made the guys around them better – maximizing contribution. Thibodeau has achieved this to extremes, and hasn’t got nearly enough credit. He hasn’t just carried his team this year, he’s dragged them through some of the worst luck imaginable, with the taglines “Next man up” and “More than enough to win” masking equal parts coaching genius and work ethic. The Bulls are a team carefully created in his image, high character guys who understand the game.

The fact that the wheels came off a couple of times for Heat blowouts in games 2 and 4 doesn’t take away from Thibodeau’s genius, those games were just Miami showing how good (and fresh) they were.

If I’m Miami, a healthy Bulls team led by a healthy Derrick Rose next season is a very, very scary prospect.

My Westbrook theory (rant)...

Let’s talk about Russell Westbrook.

Since being taken 4^th in the 2008 NBA Draft the 6 foot 3 guard from California has been busy. A 3 time all-star, World and Olympic gold medal winner, widely regarded as a top 3 athlete in the NBA, this year he finished 6^th in the league in scoring and 7^th in assists at 23.2 and 7.4 a game. All this earned him an 80 million dollar, 5 year deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC is on the path to a championship, losing to the eventual champs in each of the last 3 seasons, but getting a step closer every year; 1^st round to the Lakers in 2010, Conference Finals to Dallas in 2011, and the finals to Miami in 2012. According to this trend, the Thunder was poised to complete their ascent to the pinnacle of the NBA this year, or at the least give us a mouth watering finals rematch against Miami. Then something unusual happened, Russell got hurt. Not as you would expect on one of his kamikaze missions into the paint, but in a bizarre collision with Rockets rookie upstart Patrick Beverly who was going for a steal as Westbrook called a timeout. Not only did he miss the first game of his career in game 3 of the first round against Houston, he missed the rest of the playoffs. Without Westbrook, Kevin Durant carried the Thunder past a young Rockets squad, but couldn’t get past an excellent Memphis Grizzlies team in the 2^nd round. OKC’s fairytale rise to a championship will have to wait till next year, as will answers to ever more frequent questions on how much the Thunder could regret trading away super sub come superstar James Harden at the start of the year.

Will they win it all next year as currently constituted? Possibly, but I’m going to argue for a pretty major adjustment in OKC’s makeup: shifting Westbrook to shooting guard. This is not a revolutionary idea and has been tabled with gumption after each of OKC’s recent playoff “failures”. My argument is based on giving the Thunder a better chance to win one, and potentially multiple championships. This is not to say they cannot or will not win with RW at the point guard spot, as his career thus far has already demonstrated this is highly possible, but that they will be a better team with a better chance of a ring with him at the 2.

We’ll start with an overview of his strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths – The foundation of his game is athleticism. Speed, strength, quickness and hops make him a terror going to the rim in the half court and transition. Defenders have to respect the drive and he can punish them with his mid range jumper. He’s a more than adequate post up player. He gets to the line frequently. Effectively he’s a great scorer. Defensively his athleticism helps too, he’s a tough on the ball defender and great in the passing lanes leading to easy transition buckets, and he’s an excellent guard rebounder. To go with that athleticism is a ferocious competitiveness, which overall is a positive but contributes to some of his weaknesses as well. The positive side means he never takes plays off (effort wise) and provides constant energy on both sides of the floor. Together these mental and physical attributes combine a relentless scorer and highly disruptive defender in an (until recently) indestructible and explosive body.

Weaknesses – As is often the case his primary strengths double up as weaknesses. Scoring – the guy can score, but he’s often erratic and inefficient, taking bad shots at bad times way too often. Although his 3 point shot is improving, it’s still below average. Tied up in this shot selection is decision making, the presence and application of basketball IQ. One consistent flaw is pulling up for a quick shot in transition with teammates out of position to challenge for offensive boards, which gives the defense plays off, he then compounds the error by pressuring the opposing ball handler and overstretching his teams defense immediately in a possession. Often times it seems like he has one gear, or that the gear he’s in is way too fast for the scenario, which may involve slowing the tempo to protect a lead, clock management or simply feeding the hot hand. He’s not a bad passer, but he’s not a great one either, and even though he averages a bunch of assists, the stat is misleading in measuring his efficacy as a facilitator. His out of control play is often representative of his fluctuating temperament. He moans at refs, snaps at reporters and rants at coaching staff. Ultimately his lack of consistent composure on the floor often hurts his team.

My premise is this: his weaknesses are exactly the strengths required of a good point guard, while his strengths are exactly that of a scoring 2 guard (minus 3 point shooting, but I envision Russ as more of a Wade than Korver type 2). Conclusion: he’s a shooting guard, and should be played as one.

The point guard spot is arguably the most important on an NBA roster, they are the fulcrum of the team, an extension of the coach on the floor and therefore they bear a huge mental burden to ensure team execution of the offense. Furthermore, if the offense is struggling - which is more likely to occur against good teams in more important moments – the point guard has to be able to read the defense and adapt accordingly. Pure point guards of the past make guys around them better, if playing well is to do your job, and your job is to get guys easy buckets, then when you play well, by default, your team is better. Traditional point guards have this mindset, together with the basketball intelligence that gets wins. They more than most understand the elusive truth that winning is the result of a collective rather than individual effort. Of the 18 ex professional players coaching in the league today, 13 were point guards, which is indicative of the tactical feel for the game the position requires.

Not only does Westbrook not possess these attributes, but they are active weaknesses of his. Therefore, playing the point emphasizes these weaknesses. To make matters worse, the Thunder offence is overwhelmingly iso-oriented. Makes sense right? Westbrook and Durant are 2 of the best isolation scorers in the league, and Scott Brooks has created an offence in their image. It works well enough against bad defensive teams, but is liable to be exposed as one dimensional by good defenses given the opportunity to make adjustments over a 7 game series. Where do you go when your system can no longer generate high percentage looks if you’re a non traditional scoring point guard with a quick trigger? You take the low percentage look and hope for the best. Both Westbrooks limitations as a point guard and the limitations of the Thunder offence make it easier for opponents to expose his weaknesses.

It’s not just Westbrook, scoring point guards are common and highly sought in todays NBA, guys like Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry. But as has been pointed out (with help from an excellent barman analogy), in the last 30 years no point guard on a championship team has taken more than 19% of their teams shots. Westbrook in the regular season took 25% of his teams shots, Kyrie is at 21%, Rose at 21% (in 11/12 regular season), Curry is at 21%. Perhaps the catalyst for today’s tendencies towards ball dominant guard scoring is the great Allen Iverson who really set the bar at taking 35% (in 01/02) of his teams shots, now I’m not denying AI was a great scorer in his prime, but he is the blueprint for scoring point guards everywhere, and he never won a ring. Oh and the guys who took 19% of their teams shots - Magic Johnson and Isaiah Thomas, two of the greatest point guards and players ever, so they probably could justify the extra looks. Granted, there are limits in using the past to predict the future, is the absence of scoring point guards because of a fundamental floor in the concept? Or is it just that the game has evolved to favour perimeter scorers only recently? I’d say it’s 70/30 in favour of the former, and until a banner says otherwise, I’m using history to guide how I construct a championship team rather than putting my chips on a player transcending both history and tradition.

Besides the flaws in the concept of a scoring point guard, the argument is reinforced for the Thunder by the presence of Mr Kevin Durant. Irving, Rose and Curry they are the best offensive players on their respective teams – but this is not the case for Westbrook who takes more of his teams shots than any of those guys by a not insignificant 4%. It is incredible that Durant has won the scoring title 3 times without a pure point guard getting him easy points. It’s true that Westbrook creates looks for Durant indirectly on drive and kicks and the defensive attention he himself attracts, but there is no reason he can’t still do this off the ball on the opposite wing to Durant. This would give the Thunder a more balanced attack whilst making life easier for both players.

Westbrook is at 7.4 assists per game this year, 7^th best in the league, and I’m going to argue he’s not a great passer. Why? Because stats can be empty and misleading.

Here’s a comparison of stats indicating how a team scores, shoots and passes with PG’s on and off the floor, first up, here are the effects of Westbrooks 7.4 APG.

	ON COURT	OFF COURT	DIFFERENTIAL
Points per 100 poss.	115.6	109.6	+5.7
Effective FG%	53.1%	51.5%	+1.6
Assisted FG’s	55%	56%	-1

 

Here’s Steph Curry, at 6.9 APG,

	ON COURT	OFF COURT	DIFFERENTIAL
Points per 100 poss.	109.3	101.3	+8
Effective FG%	51.6%	47.3%	+4.3
Assisted FG’s	59%	55%	+4%

 

Steph’s cumulative differential of +16.3 dwarfs Westbrooks +6.3, despite his lower APG. Both scoring point guards, with noticeably different impacts on their teams collective performances.

As a yardstick for both here’s Chris Paul, the best PG in the league in my opinion, and a pass first PG at that, with a cumulative differential of +20.8

	ON COURT	OFF COURT	DIFFERENTIAL
Points per 100 poss.	116.7	104.8	+11.9
Effective FG%	54.1%	50.2%	+3.9
Assisted FG’s	63%	58%	+5%

 

So why are his assists reasonably high? Two reasons, 1) The Thunder is the 2nd best offensive team in the league with an offensive efficiency of 110.2 and 2) Ball dominant point guards overwhelmingly get dimes; Iverson 7.9, Rose 7.9, Steve Francis 7.0, Baron Davis 8.9, even Gilbert Arenas had 6.1 a game in his most prolific scoring year (05/06). Accordingly, I think it’s fair to doubt assists as a standalone indicator of a players ability to, and effect of, “Spread the Sugar” as the great Bob “Da Cooz” Cousy described it.

Decision making has been a constant criticism of Westbrook, especially in recent playoff runs where he has been benched or moved off the ball for important stretches. In the Western Conference Finals of 2011 against Dallas, Westbrook sat for the whole 4^th quarter as Scott Brooks went to Erik Maynor at the point after Westbrook made a series of poor decisions and out of control plays meaning the team failed to run the offense. The Thunder were a -10 in Westbrook’s 28 minutes, compared to a +18 in Maynor’s 19 minutes, and OKC won game 2 to level the series. There’s clearly something wrong with sitting a multiple all star in the biggest 12 minutes of the season because they were hurting your team, but it’s not a surprise, given Westbrooks strengths (scoring) and weaknesses (being a point guard), and how the two so blatantly conflict.

Moving on a year to the WCF in 2012 against the Spurs and another example of how in big moments and games, Westbrook is better off without the offensive load of scoring and running the team. This time he wasn’t benched but relieved of his primary ball handling duties, which were given to James Harden. The story of the series so far was this; in games 1 and 2 the Spurs had played arguably the best team basketball seen for decades and jumped out to a 2-0 series lead with the series heading to OKC. In game 3 defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha was assigned to slow down Spurs point guard Tony Parker, which he did brilliantly and without their enigmatic point guard, the Spurs offense broke down, and OKC won game 3. In game 4 the Sefolosha adjustment works again, but the game is tight in the 4^th, when Harden starts running the offense – which consisted of a single devastating play. Harden has the ball on the left wing, waits for Durant to come up from a downpick from Westbrook on the weak side, and gives KD the ball. It was that simple. KD scored 16 consequetive points in 6 minutes off options from that one magical play. Harden had 6 assists to Durant. OKC wins the game and goes on to win the series.

These two episodes are extreme versions of a fairly regular problem Coach Scott Brooks faces, one that he prefers to address with short term Erik Maynor and James Harden shaped band aids rather than a once and for all solution. The issue resurfaced in the Finals against the formidable Miami Heat, after game 2 Westbrook took heavy criticism of his point guard play by the greatest point guard of all time – Magic Johnson. In game 3 Westbrook was benched midway through the 3^rd for a series of bad shots and turnovers. Testament to his competitive edge he responded to subpar performances and criticism with an historic and notably efficient 20 of 32 shooting 43 point outburst in game 5. However with the Thunder down three with 17.3 seconds left, Udonis Haslem and James Harden lined up for a jump ball. If the Heat retained possession, they would have five seconds left on the shot clock. Westbrook didn’t recognize this, and when Mario Chalmers tracked down the tip, Westbrook made the mistake of intentionally fouling him. OKC lost the game and the series, his game 4 performance perfectly epitomized Westbrook the player - potentially sensational scorer, regularly reckless decision maker. So logically, put him in positions to score, and take him out of positions where he has to make decisions.

On the assumption that Westbrook is properly classified as a shooting guard, General Manager Sam Presti and the Thunders already debatable decision to trade James Harden becomes more contentious. After Hardens great year in Houston, it could be argued Sam Presti moved the wrong player. Harden may not be as athletic as Westbrook but is a more versatile offensive threat as a better 3 point shooter and passer, and thus a better complement to KD. After Westbrooks injury in the playoffs this year, Serge Ibaka was expected to take on more of an offensive load, but he couldn’t do it, lending weight to the popular theory that it should have been Ibaka that was moved. But that’s an argument for another day.

This years playoffs were interesting in a number of ways though. Most people will point solely to the absence of Westbrook for the Thunders struggles after he went down in game 3, and they definitely missed him, but his absence wasn’t the whole story. They struggled initially in the Houston series as Durant played a lot of point forward, and Westbrooks replacement sophomore Reggie Jackson struggled to define his role under immense pressure to fill Westbrooks shoes. After a couple of close Houston wins however, the Thunder won in 6. Let’s not forget though that Houston was right there and almost stole game 2 on the road, when Russell was playing, losing a nail biter by 3 points, and so were more of a threat with Westbrook on or off the floor than most people give them credit for. In the second round the Thunder lost in 5, but this belies how close this series was – with the 5 games being decided by 2, 6, 6, 6 and 4 with the Thunder losing the game on the inside rather than on the perimeter, Perkins offered no offensive threat and as already mentioned Ibaka struggled against the Grizzly big man tandem of Gasol and Randolph. Reggie Jackson though actually had a solid postseason with per game averages of 14 points, 3.6 assists, and 5 boards on 48% shooting, notably with 2.1 turnovers per 36 minutes to Westbrooks 4.2. Quite impressive considering the first 4 games were his first real taste of the playoffs in turbulent circumstances as the Thunder offense was in flux after losing Westbrook, and the next 5 games were against the best defense in the league.

Phil Jackson has always said that the game reveals the player as it reveals the coach. In time it will reveal Russell Westbrook, his success or failure as a point guard, the strategy of coach Scott Brooks, the decisions of GM Sam Presti, the legacy of running mate Kevin Durant and ultimately the Championship pedigree of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Will they win it all next year, or any year, as currently constituted? Possibly.

Will they win it all with Russell at the 2? Probably.